- What Traders Need to Know
Oluwole Olawepo
Since October 1, 2025, the U.S. federal government has entered a partial shutdown after Congress failed to approve funding for the new fiscal year. Many agencies that release critical economic indicators have suspended operations, disrupting the normal flow of data that markets and policymakers rely on.
What’s at Risk: Delays in Jobless Claims and NFP
Among the most affected releases are:
Weekly jobless claims: typically published every Thursday, which signal changes in unemployment trends
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP): the marquee monthly jobs report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Because of the shutdown, these releases are being paused until funding is restored.
In the absence of official BLS data, private-sector indicators are stepping into the spotlight. For example, ADP reported a drop of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, a signal of weakening labour momentum, though it lacks the full rigor of government data.
Impacts on Traders, Markets & Policy Making
The lack of updated data creates several challenges:
Increased uncertainty: Traders make decisions based on economic releases; without them, the market loses guidance.
Fed under pressure: The Federal Reserve relies on labour and inflation data to set interest rate policy. With data absent, decision-makers are “flying blind.”
Volatility risk: Incomplete information can lead to overreactions or mispricing in markets.
Mismatched expectations: Without macro indicators, market commentary, forecasts, and trades may diverge sharply depending on which alternative data sources are used.
What Traders Can Do to Stay Ahead
Here are practical steps you can take in this data-dark environment:
Use alternative data. Rely on private sector reports (e.g., ADP, payroll processors, regional Fed surveys) when government stats aren’t available.
Monitor related indicators. Look at consumer spending, retail sales, PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), credit metrics, etc., from non-government sources.
Manage position size and risk. Consider reducing exposure or setting tighter stop losses, since surprises are likelier without official data.
Stay updated via news & research. Follow real-time updates from financial news outlets and trusted analysts.
Prepare for resumption. Once the shutdown ends, there may be a flood of backlogged releases, and anticipate sharp moves.
Bottom Line
The U.S. government shutdown has choked off the release of essential data like weekly jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls, making it harder for traders to read the path of the economy.
Until Congress restores funding, markets will lean more heavily on alternative and private data sources. Traders should operate with caution, expect volatility, and stay nimble.