The rise in the number of covid-19 infection in Nigeria is worrisome. As at last Monday 30th of June, 2020, Nigeria as recorded over 25,000 cases of covid-19 infection with Lagos having the highest number of infection.
With the rate at which more cases are discovered, it appears the index case may increase in the coming weeks as most Nigerians no longer pay attention to safety guidelines recommended by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and World Health Organisation (WHO).
Recall that Nigeria recorded its first index case of Covid-19 pandemic in February 2020. Since then, the government through the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has been battling with the novel pandemic. Health workers who are in front-line of this battle along sides other volunteers fought passionately to ensure contact tracing of confirmed cases in order to avoid community spreading. Rather unfortunately, we are already at the stage of community spreading.
In order to curtail the spread of the virus, the Federal Government gave a lockdown order in March. It however turned out that majority of Nigerians who live on daily income find it difficult to feed their family as a result of the lockdown. This created anxiety for people as the government does not have the capacity to cater for the need of everybody.
During the lockdown the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 infection began rise as we have been able to increase our testing capacity. Rather too soon, the lockdown order was lifted and Nigerian stormed the town, going about their businesses without caution.
As at the time lockdown was partially lifted in May, total number of infection was about 4,600. Fast forward to June 26, 2020, Nigeria has recorded over 23,000 cases of covid-19 infection. We are now in community transmission stage that we are trying to avoid because people still go about their normal business without adherence to safety tips by NCDC.
We are going to see spikes in the number of people that will get the virus in the coming weeks as people are not keeping the social distancing rule.. Our markets are now being flooded with crowd just like it was before the lockdown.
We recall that that the Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Professor Akin Abayomi, in his projections at the initial stage of this outbreak, projected a worst case scenario of 39,000 cases for Lagos; and if well managed the projection it could be reduced to 13,000. In May, Lagos further increased the projection for covid-19 infection to 120,000 cases. Lagos already has more than 9,000 recorded cases as it remain the epicenter of covid-19 infection.
The impact of this pandemic is obvious on our economy as every sector is feeling the hit. The threat of the second wave of covid-19 is looming as most states have now opened their worship centers and some are planning to open schools. There may be another lockdown should infection cases go beyond control.
Until there is a concrete evidence and established fact that vaccine has been developed for covid-19, we will continue to speculate. Countries will continue to manage the outcome of the pandemic as the economy tend to open.
With the new threat of rising cases of covid-19, the opening of the economy becomes a threat itself. It like a vicious cycle of covid19 impact both locally and internationally. If we are able to break that cycle by the development of vaccine, what we are seeing will not end.