Ruth Ibikunle
The Nigerian Stock market last week closed a negative note, shedding 2.24% week on week. Year to date, the market has returned 39.64% with the All-Share Index and Market Capitalisation 143,722.62 points and N91.415 respectively.
In a stock market review with Mr. Gilbert Ayoola, a seasoned capital market expert, the following were discussed:
Excerpts:
The stock market last week closed on a bearish note shedding 2.24%. What is the outlook for the new week?
The Nigerian stock market closed last week on a bearish note, losing 2.24%, as sustained investor interest in high-yield Treasury Bills diverted liquidity away from equities. Rising fixed-income returns, especially on short and medium-term maturities, continued to create a strong pull toward safer assets, pressuring key blue-chip stocks and weakening overall market sentiment.
The market is expected to trade cautiously with a mild bearish bias. Attractive T-Bill yields will likely keep driving portfolio rebalancing from equities to fixed income, limiting demand for risk assets. Consequently, trading activity may remain subdued, with sentiment dominated by yield-seekers positioning for government securities.
However, selective opportunities remain. Value stocks and fundamentally strong counters that have recently pulled back may attract bargain hunting, offering pockets of resilience despite the broader downtrend.
The new week’s outlook leans neutral to bearish, anchored by the compelling yield environment in Treasury Bills. Unless yields soften or fresh liquidity enters the market, equities may continue to experience measured downside pressure with only isolated recoveries in oversold stocks.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation rate dropped to 16.05%. How would this impact the stock market?
Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 16.05%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, marking a significant moderation and offering a more supportive backdrop for the equities market.
The decline in inflation is positive for stocks on multiple fronts. Lower price pressures typically strengthen consumer purchasing power and reduce operational cost burdens for listed companies, especially in consumer goods, industrials, and banking. It also improves the real return on equities, making the market more attractive relative to periods of high inflation.
With inflation cooling, the policy environment will gradually tilt toward less aggressive monetary tightening, which supports better liquidity conditions and improves investor appetite for risk assets. This shift helps moderate the outflow of funds into fixed income and encourage renewed interest in undervalued equities.
However, the impact may not be immediate. Investors remain cautious, watching how sustainably inflation continues to trend downward and how monetary authorities respond.
Overall, the easing inflation figure provides a constructive signal for the stock market, offering room for improved sentiment and potential recovery in market performance as cost pressures ease, and real returns strengthen.
Why is Dangote Cement trending down?
Dangote Cement has been trending down in recent sessions, driven largely by a combination of profit-taking, technical pressures, and weak sector sentiment. After a strong price appreciation earlier in the year, the stock’s current market price of N534.60 sits well above its 52-week low of N349.20, making it an attractive point for investors to lock in gains.
Technically, the stock is also trading below its 50-day moving average of N578.02, signaling a loss of short-term momentum and reinforcing bearish sentiment among traders. This technical breakdown has encouraged additional selling pressure.
The broader Industrial Goods Index has also recorded a negative performance, adding to the downside as sector-wide weakness weighs on major constituents like Dangote Cement.
However, the stock’s decline is a product of profit-taking at elevated price levels, weakening technical indicators, and negative sector performance, rather than any material deterioration in fundamentals.
What is driving the growth in Tantalizer and UACN?
Tantalizers and UACN have been experiencing renewed investor interest, driven by company-specific growth catalysts and stronger sector fundamentals.
For Tantalizers, momentum is supported by its forward-looking expansion strategy, highlighted by the recently signed 5-year offtake agreement with Harvester Fisheries LLC (USA) for the export of premium wild-caught tiger prawns and pure shrimps. This move positions the company to tap into higher-value export markets, diversify revenue streams, and strengthen its long-term earnings outlook.
In the case of UACN, performance has been fueled by improved price-cost dynamics across its Packaged Foods and Paints segments, reflecting better margin management and stronger demand recovery. In addition, the anticipated growth prospects from UAC’s partnership with C.H.I. Limited enhance the company’s market position, offering a compelling blend of leading brands and exposure to fast-growing categories within Nigeria’s food and beverage industry.
Both companies are benefiting from strategic expansion initiatives, improved operational efficiencies, and strengthened market positioning, which together underpin the current uptick in investor sentiment.
Is Ellah Lakes a good buy at N12.74?
Ellah Lakes’ current price at N12.74 looks compelling, particularly when viewed in the context of its N12.50 public offer, signaling strong management conviction and alignment with long-term investors.
The company plans a 1,500-hectare oil-palm expansion in 2026, plus livestock deployment, deepening its integrated agro‑industrial footprint. Ellah Lakes appears to be a strategic buy at N12.74, especially for investors who believe in Nigeria’s agro‑industrial growth and expected revenue target within its five-year strategy.
How attractive are the following: NEM Insurance, Access Holdings, UBA, Zenith, and Fidelity Bank?
NEM Insurance
NEM Insurance remains one of the standout performers in the insurance space. Q3 2025 results showed a 66.9% YoY rise in pre-tax profit to N5.8 billion, driven primarily by a 223% surge in net investment income on the back of strong interest yields and fair-value gains. Underwriting performance softened marginally, but investment income more than offset the dip.
The market has responded positively, with the stock up 34.3% YTD, reflecting confidence in NEM’s capital strength, expanding premium base, and disciplined asset allocation.
NEM poses a strong investment performance, and capital depth makes it an attractive defensive play with upside.
Access Holdings
Access Holdings’ diversified model continues to pay off. Q3 2025 gross earnings rose 14.1% YoY to N3.9 trillion, supported by solid interest income and a strong 44.3% jump in fee and commission income. Net interest income grew by 48.9%, signaling improved balance-sheet efficiency.
While the decline in PAT tempers sentiment, the group’s expanding pan-African operations now generating over half of earnings bolster its long-term growth narrative. Trading at N20.50 against a 52-week high of N28.95 and a 50-day MA of N24.50, the stock appears well-positioned for accumulation.
For investors seeking scale, diversification, and long-term expansion present an attractive and favourable entry point.
UBA
UBA posted a steady Q3 2025, with PAT up 2.3% YoY to N537.5 billion, supported by rising interest income and resilient net interest margins. The balance sheet remains a key strength: total assets grew 7.2% YoY to N32.5 trillion, with deposits up 7.7% to N26.5 trillion, alongside rising shareholders’ equity at N4.3 trillion.
The bank’s broad African footprint and robust capital generation supports a stability-focused investment thesis rather than aggressive growth.
UBA looks dependable for medium-to-long-term value play for investors prioritising balance-sheet strength and earnings resilience.
Zenith
Zenith continues to command bullish investor sentiment. Earnings remain driven by strong interest income, supported by improving asset quality and an efficient operating structure reflected in its low cost-to-income ratio (-45%). Insider buying further signals confidence in the bank’s strategy and forward earnings potential.
With high-yielding assets, solid capital buffers, and strong risk management, Zenith stands out as the sector’s premier play.
The top pick combines profitability, operational leverage, and balance-sheet strength for investors with constructive views on Nigeria’s macro.
Fidelity Bank
Fidelity’s Q3 2025 shows strong top-line expansion, with gross earnings jumping to N1.11 trillion from N772.5 billion YoY. PBT came in at N268.2 billion, supported significantly by N47.7 billion in FX revaluation gains, highlighting both opportunity and volatility.
While growth in interest income and balance-sheet scale is compelling, capital constraints and possible future dilution remain key watch-points. Trading at N19.05 versus a 52-week high of N22.45 and a 50-day MA of N19.79, the stock offers an attractive but risk-tilted entry point.
What are the stocks to watch?
The likely stocks to watch for the week include: MTN, Tantalizer, FCMB, Ellah Lakes, Zenith, UACN, Fidelity, NAHCO, Access, TIP, Universal Insurance, VFD, Champion, UBA, and many more.